The Emotions of Numbers

People and numbers are a funny combination.

Math and numbers are logical things. They follow rules that are consistent and unvarying. Two plus two always equals four. Any given equation will always produce the same result when given the same exact set of inputs.

People, however, are not always logical things. We can be logical, but we are usually emotional, whether or not we like to admit it. We don't always react exactly the same way, even though the circumstances may be the same. Being five minutes late to work on one day may elicit a completely different reaction from your boss than it will on another day.

Nowhere can you tell this is the case more than when comparing peoples reactions to numbers, especially when attached to traumatic events. Those knowledgeable about numbers can present them along with other facts in ways that deliberately manipulate the emotions of those who don't know better, or who fail to think beyond their emotional reaction. If you don't think beyond your emotional reaction, you WILL allow yourself to be manipulated.

Allow me to illustrate with some hypothetical examples. I could use actual numbers and situations, but that could distract from what I'm trying to illustrate. So let me be perfectly clear – the situations I'm about to present to you are completely fictitious examples I made up to illustrate how presenting numbers can manipulate you.

Suppose I told you that in the last 30 years in the city of Ulder, 1/10^th of 1% of the population were killed by lightsabers? That's probably not going to evoke much of a reaction from you. One is a small number, 1/10^th of that is even smaller. Stating the number that way isn't going to evoke much of a reaction – it doesn't register for most people as significant. Which may actually be the intent. Especially if I don't also present you with how big the population is at the same time.

If I tell you that Ulder's population is 1000, some quick math tells us that only one person died from a light saber wound. (1000x0.1%=1). If Ulder's population is really 10 million people though, that means 10,000 people died from light saber wounds. If I present the number as 1/10^th of 1%, I'm presenting the number for minimal emotional effect. But if I present it as 10,000 people killed by lightsabers in Ulder, I'm presenting it for maximum emotional effect. Because ten thousand is a big number and it registers as significant for most people. Bigger numbers register even more significantly.

Furthermore, I initially said “In the last 30 years”. Those 10,000 light saber deaths were over 30 years. That's an average of 333 to 334 deaths per year. An average. But that doesn't mean that it was 334 deaths last year, nor 334 deaths in the first year. It very well could be that 30 years ago 9999 people were killed by light sabers, and only one person last year.

And then you have to consider that merely presenting the numbers doesn't tell a lot of the facts behind those deaths. Were they suicides? Were they Jedi brutality? Were they the result of an explosion at the light saber factory? Was there a war, official or otherwise?

There is also no perspective set to those numbers. Has the population been growing or stagnant or declining over that 30 years? What is the over all death rate? What were the other causes of death? If 50.000 a year are dying from another cause like starvation, is light saber death really the thing to be focused on? What are the rates of light saber deaths in the cities around Ulder? Are they lower or higher? And what other factors might make their rates different?

So, you see, I can influence your opinion of light sabers in the city of Ulder simply in the way I present my data on the number of those deaths. Ten thousand deaths is perceived as a lot, less than 1% is not. And what else I tell you or don't tell you is just as important to how you may perceive my message.

Numbers don't lie. They don't manipulate. But the people who present those numbers to you can, and many of them will, all the while using your own perception about the logical nature of numbers against you.

You cannot control the fact they will lie, they will manipulate and they will twist things to their favor. You can, however, educate yourself against their manipulation, and watch for it. The only way to fight against it is to be prepared to do your own research about the numbers they present.

I will freely admit that the numbers and facts that I will present here on this blog are sometimes going to be used in such a way as to illustrate the point I am trying to make. I don't think it's possible to present numbers in such a way as to not be manipulating, at least not without tens of tens of pages of dry, boring facts, figures and statistics. I promise I will do my best to not use them to outright lie to you, but I invite you to double check me, to look into the things I mention. Do your own research. I'm comfortable enough with what I say to engage in a reasoned discussion with those willing to look at the same data and use critical thinking skills to reach their own conclusions.

It is how we learn, how we learn to think. It is an essential part of freedom and liberty.